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The Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee announced it will continue to hold down short-term interest rates, which in turn will help keep mortgage rates low. But there is question of how much longer the central bank will do this.

The Fed said it will continue to buy $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but would reduce its asset purchase — known as “quantitative easing” — if job growth continues at its current pace.

Last year, the Fed committed to holding short-term interest rates near zero for as long as unemployment remained above 6.5 percent. In February, the unemployment rate was 7.7 percent. Many economists don’t expect unemployment to drop to levels around 6.5 percent until 2015.

However, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted Wednesday that there is not consensus among the policy-making committee on how much longer to continue quantitative easing.

The committee recognized progress in the economy and job growth in recent months, noting “a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year.”

Bernanke has testified to Congress that quantitative easing has helped revive the housing market. Mortgage rates have fallen near all-time lows, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 3.63 percent on March 14, according to Freddie Mac. In November 2012, 30-year rates fell as low as 3.31 percent.

Housing is “coming back, it’s real, and it’s going to be a positive driver,” said Jeff Fettig, the chief executive officer of Whirlpool Corp., the world’s largest appliance maker. “For every 6 percent increase in existing-home sales you see a 1 percent demand increase in appliances.”

Source: “Fed to Maintain Stimulus Efforts Despite Job Growth,” The New York Times (March 20, 2013) and“Bernanke Seen Keeping Up Pace of QE Until Fourth Quarter,” Bloomberg (March 20, 2013)

San Diego Union Tribune

The housing recovery in California is expected to continue through to 2013, but the market won’t be “corrected” until as far off as 2017, according to the California Housing Market Forecast released by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS.

Making sense of the story

• Homes sales and prices are expected to keep rising, but lower-than-normal inventory levels and underwater mortgages are key hindrances to a faster recovery, according to Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist with the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
• Home sales are forecasted to rise 1.3 percent to 530,000 units next year, based on the projected tally of 523,300 units this year. That’s a slower growth than that of 2011 to 2012, which is roughly 5 percent.

• The momentum in prices also is expected to carry through to 2013, a result of pent-up demand for a limited housing supply. The median price could rise 5.7 percent to $335,000 in 2013. That’s lower than the projected price growth from 2011 to 2012, an estimated 11 percent. The state has a 3.2 months’ worth of housing inventory, significantly lower than the 16 months’-plus supply of saw roughly four years ago.

• “Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price range homes,” said Appleton-Young in the report.

• Appleton-Young says what underwater borrowers throughout the state will do — be it selling or holding — will have a big effect on next year’s housing recovery.

• Other things to watch next year that will have a bearing on the housing market include: policies related to the state,local and federal governments; and housing and monetary policies, Appleton-Young said.

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